{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ca4df93-461b-4808-83a0-57ae1d68df66", "symbol": "VPBG", "name": "Vanilla Global Balanced ETP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.956, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.393, "architecture_energy": 28.268, "architecture_maturity": 8.479, "architecture_confidence": 86.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.54, "rotation_up": 18.4, "upward_expansion": 5.02, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 49.59, "downward_expansion": 73.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.292, 10.311273, 10.35856, 10.378849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.43, "trend_reference": 10.405, "distance_from_trend": 0.002403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.358709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006882, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.12393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012778, "excess_performance": -0.064013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006452, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.006517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2425, "relative_activity": 0.504127, "balance": 9.006517, "dry_up": 0.737428, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01688, "annualized_volatility": 0.091675, "from_high_reference": -0.040478, "from_low_reference": 0.169283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.405, "fair_value_reference": 10.358709, "structural_low": 9.95, "invalidation": "A 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"close": 10.2825, "volume": 2140, "typical_volume": 5948.1, "trend": 10.456917, "fair_value": 10.363614, "relative_strength": -8.042273, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.485307, "energy": 22.676347, "activity_lines": [ 10.411167, 10.430682, 10.42244, 10.434457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5012.25, "trend": 10.451583, "fair_value": 10.364301, "relative_strength": -8.000237, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.395379, "energy": 19.244825, "activity_lines": [ 10.404333, 10.429182, 10.420679, 10.432075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.2275, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5008.75, "trend": 10.4405, "fair_value": 10.362653, "relative_strength": -7.804263, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.378412, "energy": 49.124303, "activity_lines": [ 10.340833, 10.392136, 10.401036, 10.417618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.19, "volume": 2903, "typical_volume": 4313.3, "trend": 10.427833, "fair_value": 10.360598, "relative_strength": -8.700644, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.552708, "energy": 66.054162, "activity_lines": [ 10.279833, 10.351227, 10.379893, 10.401457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3275, "volume": 8073, "typical_volume": 4688.45, "trend": 10.424417, "fair_value": 10.360208, "relative_strength": -8.315131, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.92896, "energy": 58.102669, "activity_lines": [ 10.280167, 10.338409, 10.37419, 10.394984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.16, "volume": 788, "typical_volume": 4689.05, "trend": 10.415667, "fair_value": 10.35788, "relative_strength": -10.539758, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.225835, "energy": 67.488133, "activity_lines": [ 10.237, 10.297227, 10.352702, 10.377925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.43, "volume": 2425, "typical_volume": 4810.3, "trend": 10.405, "fair_value": 10.358709, "relative_strength": -8.12393, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.392808, "energy": 28.268314, "activity_lines": [ 10.292, 10.311273, 10.35856, 10.378849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }