{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ca63cdb-974c-4037-b24f-cc78b8a3c463", "symbol": "CG", "name": "Carlyle Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.278, "architecture_energy": 14.913, "architecture_maturity": 25.158, "architecture_confidence": 71.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.56, "rotation_up": 34.3, "upward_expansion": 23.56, "deceleration": 43.46, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 48.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.405333, 45.366545, 45.694375, 46.553652 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 47.79, "trend_reference": 48.832213, "distance_from_trend": -0.021343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.406124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.945965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174617, "excess_performance": -0.362071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.983032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29242537, "relative_activity": 1.771015, "balance": 0.983032, "dry_up": 1.069714, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078631, "annualized_volatility": 0.339694, "from_high_reference": -0.301608, "from_low_reference": 0.206818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.832213, "fair_value_reference": 45.406124, "structural_low": 39.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.057127, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.06581, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.249616, "worst_return": -0.162415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033801, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.037323, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.385083, "worst_return": -0.203347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.26797, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.131696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386864, "worst_return": -0.237044, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 46.405333, 45.366545, 45.694375, 46.553652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }