{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ca7e447-bf30-44b7-aeda-53cc27a5a976", "symbol": "DIT", "name": "Destination Italia S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.358, "architecture_energy": 37.254, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.64, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.1, "rotation_up": 24.82, "upward_expansion": 16.41, "deceleration": 66.1, "rotation_down": 40.79, "downward_expansion": 64.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.268133, 0.272036, 0.26229, 0.28312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.324533, "distance_from_trend": -0.19885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.636878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591759, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.893979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.449153, "excess_performance": -0.620044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079734, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.48894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102617, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.449153, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121500, "relative_activity": 0.950704, "balance": 0.461538, "dry_up": 0.454812, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073964, "annualized_volatility": 0.533947, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.244019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.324533, "fair_value_reference": 0.636878, "structural_low": 0.209, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002309, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.024139, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.223077, "worst_return": -0.271028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.081631, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.184378, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.021898, "worst_return": -0.326531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.180851, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.223204, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.240876, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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132525.0, "trend": 0.346533, "fair_value": 0.651263, "relative_strength": -49.951892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.295215, "energy": 29.946167, "activity_lines": [ 0.277933, 0.266345, 0.2646, 0.296649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.273, "volume": 40500, "typical_volume": 128925.0, "trend": 0.3393, "fair_value": 0.64641, "relative_strength": -46.183314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.380192, "energy": 22.340298, "activity_lines": [ 0.275467, 0.269782, 0.263467, 0.291905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": 127500.0, "trend": 0.331867, "fair_value": 0.641814, "relative_strength": -45.315647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.220398, "energy": 25.695415, "activity_lines": [ 0.274133, 0.272673, 0.263224, 0.287757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 121500, "typical_volume": 127800.0, "trend": 0.324533, "fair_value": 0.636878, "relative_strength": -48.893979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.35807, "energy": 37.254331, "activity_lines": [ 0.268133, 0.272036, 0.26229, 0.28312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }