{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cae539b-9e44-4c43-822c-ec2fe6017527", "symbol": "RARE", "name": "WisdomTree Strategic Metals and Rare Earths Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.211, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.603, "architecture_energy": 55.305, "architecture_maturity": 9.762, "architecture_confidence": 76.44, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.14, "rotation_up": 15.31, "upward_expansion": 9.04, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 67.23, "downward_expansion": 84.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.961167, 52.752501, 56.273393, 57.665683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.48, "trend_reference": 59.266834, "distance_from_trend": -0.047022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.283977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475291, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.66378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056623, "excess_performance": -0.107858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028395, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887226, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22523, "relative_activity": 0.706624, "balance": 0.887226, "dry_up": 0.604252, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074522, "annualized_volatility": 0.478496, "from_high_reference": -0.2, "from_low_reference": 0.597059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.266834, "fair_value_reference": 38.283977, "structural_low": 47.794998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132601, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-26", "close": 26.5532, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 27.1775, "volume": 236, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 28.0075, "volume": 217, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -85.696507, "energy": 87.867202, "activity_lines": [ 52.006668, 54.929546, 58.18112, 59.092194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.8675, "volume": 18704, "typical_volume": 43305.2, "trend": 59.38225, "fair_value": 38.033133, "relative_strength": -11.121364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.474362, "energy": 84.482575, "activity_lines": [ 50.792834, 53.580637, 57.294405, 58.47214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.6875, "volume": 12766, "typical_volume": 42807.4, "trend": 59.285334, "fair_value": 38.131069, "relative_strength": -12.82401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.494874, "energy": 83.452033, "activity_lines": [ 50.088501, 52.438137, 56.439703, 57.846672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.48, "volume": 22523, "typical_volume": 31874.1, "trend": 59.266834, "fair_value": 38.283977, "relative_strength": -1.66378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.603397, "energy": 55.305078, "activity_lines": [ 51.961167, 52.752501, 56.273393, 57.665683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }