{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cb6028a-2e91-47ea-befc-26be7595334a", "symbol": "JHCB", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR CORPORATE BD ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.985, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.184, "architecture_energy": 67.782, "architecture_maturity": 4.831, "architecture_confidence": 85.024, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.26, "rotation_up": 9.02, "upward_expansion": 15.2, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 70.62, "downward_expansion": 88.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.813837, 20.919595, 20.994962, 21.02733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.865, "trend_reference": 21.084118, "distance_from_trend": -0.010393, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.861525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.881699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018236, "excess_performance": -0.143861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65633, "relative_activity": 0.753267, "balance": 0.72341, "dry_up": 1.047594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010079, "annualized_volatility": 0.05026, "from_high_reference": -0.036644, "from_low_reference": 0.014341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.084118, "fair_value_reference": 19.861525, "structural_low": 20.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011128, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073268, "worst_return": -0.035767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064752, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068861, "worst_return": 0.060642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099705, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084504, "worst_return": 0.073257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.730587, "volume": 81639, "typical_volume": 99518.25, "trend": 21.108529, "fair_value": 19.824561, "relative_strength": -9.035673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.491185, "energy": 63.263793, "activity_lines": [ 20.911121, 21.008303, 21.039807, 21.067234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.72, "volume": 156530, "typical_volume": 87410.95, "trend": 21.09497, "fair_value": 19.842148, "relative_strength": -9.744624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.486498, "energy": 71.640053, "activity_lines": [ 20.822865, 20.948292, 21.010083, 21.042167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.865, "volume": 65633, "typical_volume": 87131.1, "trend": 21.084118, "fair_value": 19.861525, "relative_strength": -11.881699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.183611, "energy": 67.782406, "activity_lines": [ 20.813837, 20.919595, 20.994962, 21.02733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }