{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cbb20b9-ae61-4569-b77e-f4ea1c374123", "symbol": "LIB", "name": "LIBERTYMET FPO [LIB]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.702, "architecture_energy": 57.431, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.345, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 17.13, "upward_expansion": 9.65, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 62.84, "downward_expansion": 82.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.002964, 0.003369, 0.003531 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.003683, "distance_from_trend": -0.321267, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.0023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.59088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.34942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023148, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.702567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.883405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4007253, "relative_activity": 0.181184, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.250669, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.823943, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003683, "fair_value_reference": 0.0023, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.044435, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067187, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.18254, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.188716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.733333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.003, "volume": 25000, "typical_volume": 22938010.05, "trend": 0.003717, "fair_value": 0.002418, "relative_strength": -4.941449, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.230669, "energy": 51.791639, "activity_lines": [ 0.0032, 0.0035, 0.003793, 0.003803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.003, "volume": 4666832, "typical_volume": 22441870.95, "trend": 0.003733, "fair_value": 0.002385, "relative_strength": -5.666383, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.605518, "energy": 59.800042, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003355, 0.003712, 0.003757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 166134287, "typical_volume": 28737350.75, "trend": 0.003767, "fair_value": 0.002361, "relative_strength": -6.69375, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.820227, "energy": 64.524254, "activity_lines": [ 0.003033, 0.003245, 0.003633, 0.00371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 18158995, "typical_volume": 23884915.05, "trend": 0.003767, "fair_value": 0.002337, "relative_strength": -7.536627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.720849, "energy": 59.352172, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003164, 0.003557, 0.00366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 10811684, "typical_volume": 21972036.7, "trend": 0.003733, "fair_value": 0.002317, "relative_strength": -10.659168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.517015, "energy": 50.821126, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.0031, 0.003486, 0.003611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 4007253, "typical_volume": 22117008.6, "trend": 0.003683, "fair_value": 0.0023, "relative_strength": -27.59088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.701739, "energy": 57.430614, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.002964, 0.003369, 0.003531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }