{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cbc813d-9c41-456d-93af-114b405ac756", "symbol": "KTN", "name": "Kontron AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.633, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.818, "architecture_energy": 19.28, "architecture_maturity": 46.113, "architecture_confidence": 54.347, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.34, "rotation_up": 12.45, "upward_expansion": 24.75, "deceleration": 76.37, "rotation_down": 54.71, "downward_expansion": 26.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.396, 22.750182, 22.710524, 22.446559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.780001, "trend_reference": 22.422, "distance_from_trend": -0.028633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.872938, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.250023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007293, "excess_performance": -0.071932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1057485, "relative_activity": 1.122959, "balance": 0.394041, "dry_up": 1.200873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039415, "annualized_volatility": 0.29205, "from_high_reference": -0.232558, "from_low_reference": 0.332925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.422, "fair_value_reference": 20.872938, "structural_low": 16.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.059602, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.048339, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.153928, "worst_return": -0.071848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077671, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33106, "worst_return": -0.051896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.171221, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047428, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245753, "worst_return": 0.041119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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23.377334, 23.145091, 22.355667, 22.378043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.219999, "volume": 103671, "typical_volume": 946818.6, "trend": 22.527334, "fair_value": 20.742423, "relative_strength": -7.786159, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.507156, "energy": 38.996742, "activity_lines": [ 23.334667, 23.222182, 22.460143, 22.424409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.1, "volume": 1006048, "typical_volume": 968383.1, "trend": 22.543333, "fair_value": 20.772324, "relative_strength": -5.383728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.322457, "energy": 30.865493, "activity_lines": [ 23.254667, 23.242182, 22.554048, 22.461355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.959999, "volume": 1934893, "typical_volume": 1017452.8, "trend": 22.553333, "fair_value": 20.80224, "relative_strength": -4.596017, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.644423, "energy": 22.134952, "activity_lines": [ 23.129333, 23.204363, 22.636048, 22.488237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.860001, "volume": 739369, "typical_volume": 1017198.25, "trend": 22.557333, "fair_value": 20.830907, "relative_strength": -5.545835, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.518964, "energy": 13.038944, "activity_lines": [ 23.010667, 23.143636, 22.711, 22.508022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.36, "volume": 791675, "typical_volume": 1025661.9, "trend": 22.535333, "fair_value": 20.849672, "relative_strength": -8.985263, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.758821, "energy": 10.291523, "activity_lines": [ 22.769333, 22.994545, 22.739667, 22.49529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 1057485, "typical_volume": 941694.7, "trend": 22.422, "fair_value": 20.872938, "relative_strength": -13.250023, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.817969, "energy": 19.280152, "activity_lines": [ 22.396, 22.750182, 22.710524, 22.446559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }