{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cbe9da0-bcb8-4fc8-b9f0-4d6ff46afc6a", "symbol": "603538", "name": "Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.508, "architecture_energy": 10.752, "architecture_maturity": 32.784, "architecture_confidence": 90.75, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.3, "rotation_up": 30.38, "upward_expansion": 53.33, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 22.74, "downward_expansion": 21.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.220667, 28.059807, 30.399786, 29.495258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.200001, "trend_reference": 26.729704, "distance_from_trend": 0.092418, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.494733, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.014525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.822476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.928087, "excess_performance": 0.97129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092418, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.014525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.416486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.328225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.952257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.928087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269006883, "relative_activity": 0.894019, "balance": 0.670896, "dry_up": 1.156235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218922, "annualized_volatility": 0.972318, "from_high_reference": -0.416014, "from_low_reference": 1.166938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.729704, "fair_value_reference": 14.494733, "structural_low": 14.356066, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.054404, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.049583, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.132079, "worst_return": -0.175036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.132892, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.146773, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.085859, "worst_return": -0.194532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067754, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.723713, "worst_return": -0.125376, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 30.089161, 29.412506, 31.688199, 29.329395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.17, "volume": 373637994, "typical_volume": 288245090.1, "trend": 25.854161, "fair_value": 14.311211, "relative_strength": 24.461038, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.553527, "energy": 11.566681, "activity_lines": [ 29.299654, 28.678328, 31.251971, 29.375652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.719999, "volume": 275105845, "typical_volume": 297527263.85, "trend": 26.211938, "fair_value": 14.385462, "relative_strength": 16.473305, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.638174, "energy": 8.181575, "activity_lines": [ 28.077898, 27.860797, 30.628494, 29.30248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 269006883, "typical_volume": 300896279.7, "trend": 26.729704, "fair_value": 14.494733, "relative_strength": 32.822476, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.507538, "energy": 10.751722, "activity_lines": [ 28.220667, 28.059807, 30.399786, 29.495258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }