{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cc0f963-df12-4435-a595-dd16fff39eb1", "symbol": "2249", "name": "Daiwa Asset Management Co., Ltd.- iFreeETF S&P 500 Double Inverse Fund", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.051, "architecture_energy": 63.066, "architecture_maturity": 68.197, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.81, "rotation_up": 28.47, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 57.58, "rotation_down": 55.67, "downward_expansion": 83.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 9716.266667, 9810.509091, 9988.57619, 10412.078201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9302.0, "trend_reference": 10895.340723, "distance_from_trend": -0.146241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17499.199463, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.468433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.895451, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.2249, "excess_performance": -0.434158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.468433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61997, "relative_activity": 1.952136, "balance": 0.225958, "dry_up": 0.916659, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03995, "annualized_volatility": 0.231419, "from_high_reference": -0.331854, "from_low_reference": 0.016501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10895.340723, "fair_value_reference": 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9884.363636, 10258.435077, 10658.079123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10070.0, "volume": 11050, "typical_volume": 33848.85, "trend": 11025.636328, "fair_value": 17732.300888, "relative_strength": -29.62341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.255364, "energy": 61.423681, "activity_lines": [ 9927.133333, 9919.054545, 10189.228571, 10593.399202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9883.0, "volume": 20588, "typical_volume": 31123.45, "trend": 10969.839193, "fair_value": 17619.178041, "relative_strength": -29.554491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.809865, "energy": 53.294442, "activity_lines": [ 9905.466667, 9917.581818, 10110.6, 10519.680729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9302.0, "volume": 61997, "typical_volume": 31758.55, "trend": 10895.340723, "fair_value": 17499.199463, "relative_strength": -33.895451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.050849, "energy": 63.066174, "activity_lines": [ 9716.266667, 9810.509091, 9988.57619, 10412.078201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }