{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cc4de78-0344-4bf2-8f9e-a385142353b4", "symbol": "PHI1", "name": "Koninklijke Philips N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 49.012, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.267, "architecture_energy": 19.969, "architecture_maturity": 20.742, "architecture_confidence": 62.819, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.46, "rotation_up": 14.33, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 59.62, "rotation_down": 52.03, "downward_expansion": 61.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.194667, 23.451273, 23.252085, 23.283234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.17, "trend_reference": 23.467719, "distance_from_trend": -0.012686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.597369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.785613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030637, "excess_performance": -0.095276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072816, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47293, "relative_activity": 1.25832, "balance": 0.347807, "dry_up": 1.74311, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04734, "annualized_volatility": 0.289444, "from_high_reference": -0.126975, "from_low_reference": 0.118981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.467719, "fair_value_reference": 21.597369, "structural_low": 20.70633, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.042284, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.019121, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12037, "worst_return": -0.077638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059199, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.021213, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.155124, "worst_return": -0.038631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.318608, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152421, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429588, "worst_return": 0.061072, "sufficient": false }, { 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23.190001, "volume": 28384, "typical_volume": 31524.45, "trend": 23.492278, "fair_value": 21.517054, "relative_strength": -3.370891, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.599985, "energy": 24.450515, "activity_lines": [ 23.724667, 23.615637, 23.265552, 23.349235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.81, "volume": 155025, "typical_volume": 37166.4, "trend": 23.510739, "fair_value": 21.554837, "relative_strength": -6.835857, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.174487, "energy": 15.609136, "activity_lines": [ 23.363334, 23.496, 23.240038, 23.305217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.17, "volume": 47293, "typical_volume": 37584.25, "trend": 23.467719, "fair_value": 21.597369, "relative_strength": -7.785613, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.267174, "energy": 19.969346, "activity_lines": [ 23.194667, 23.451273, 23.252085, 23.283234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }