{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cc97e07-448d-443c-9d87-372c0464ce8a", "symbol": "SIZE", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI USA SIZE FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.843, "architecture_energy": 69.081, "architecture_maturity": 43.075, "architecture_confidence": 81.349, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 63.64, "upward_expansion": 84.73, "deceleration": 56.97, "rotation_down": 23.63, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 180.292667, 179.023596, 176.222615, 173.207588 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 184.29, "trend_reference": 170.031124, "distance_from_trend": 0.08386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.982005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.609262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102413, "excess_performance": -0.023212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035281, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049942, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038346, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.989567, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19158, "relative_activity": 0.624499, "balance": 1.989567, "dry_up": 0.726781, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018408, "annualized_volatility": 0.11466, "from_high_reference": -0.000699, "from_low_reference": 0.209936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.031124, "fair_value_reference": 145.982005, "structural_low": 154.653229, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.01522, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.002843, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.057674, "worst_return": -0.075362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015269, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01686, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.084594, "worst_return": -0.043121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044929, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.035236, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.10474, "worst_return": -0.153227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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144.82313, "relative_strength": -0.269649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.542681, "energy": 79.801204, "activity_lines": [ 178.123333, 176.928085, 173.447397, 171.017642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.78, "volume": 16484, "typical_volume": 31538.4, "trend": 168.865794, "fair_value": 145.182417, "relative_strength": 0.230178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.527868, "energy": 70.256159, "activity_lines": [ 178.174, 177.321754, 174.219989, 171.625102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 178.53, "volume": 20598, "typical_volume": 30961.95, "trend": 169.425666, "fair_value": 145.561943, "relative_strength": -0.371525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.219279, "energy": 58.590212, "activity_lines": [ 178.316, 177.695299, 174.993419, 172.248599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.29, "volume": 19158, "typical_volume": 30677.4, "trend": 170.031124, "fair_value": 145.982005, "relative_strength": -0.609262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.842706, "energy": 69.081179, "activity_lines": [ 180.292667, 179.023596, 176.222615, 173.207588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }