{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cd0c1e4-851f-448b-921c-69e2cd21aa29", "symbol": "ENZY", "name": "Enzymatica AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.375, "architecture_energy": 68.445, "architecture_maturity": 19.535, "architecture_confidence": 75.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.17, "rotation_up": 16.38, "upward_expansion": 23.22, "deceleration": 43.09, "rotation_down": 74.37, "downward_expansion": 64.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.954333, 2.143182, 2.35031, 2.375344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.875, "trend_reference": 2.326833, "distance_from_trend": -0.194184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.625682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.097897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013514, "excess_performance": -0.047981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 242035, "relative_activity": 0.570957, "balance": 0.498946, "dry_up": 0.982373, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163692, "annualized_volatility": 0.608757, "from_high_reference": -0.448529, "from_low_reference": 0.171875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.326833, "fair_value_reference": 2.625682, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030901, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.137725, "worst_return": -0.197432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.147657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041051, "worst_return": -0.2607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.319765, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.371311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.014446, "worst_return": -0.330739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.191861, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.291655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.027287, "worst_return": -0.356436, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094937, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.283088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.563452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109635, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010782, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.51, "volume": 225805, "typical_volume": 296818.5, "trend": 2.954167, "fair_value": 8.536258, "relative_strength": -26.395958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"direction": 5.215192, "energy": 11.978829, "activity_lines": [ 2.474, 2.533273, 2.572024, 2.461462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.48, "volume": 210877, "typical_volume": 417027.85, "trend": 2.319, "fair_value": 2.648566, "relative_strength": -1.338798, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.839714, "energy": 14.254815, "activity_lines": [ 2.454667, 2.519273, 2.570095, 2.473226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2, "volume": 287691, "typical_volume": 416891.9, "trend": 2.337333, "fair_value": 2.644239, "relative_strength": -10.725713, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.453747, "energy": 23.306698, "activity_lines": [ 2.364, 2.455455, 2.538952, 2.465548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.88, "volume": 838699, "typical_volume": 435633.8, "trend": 2.3365, "fair_value": 2.637476, "relative_strength": -24.131734, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.51717, "energy": 52.614489, "activity_lines": [ 2.188, 2.342182, 2.47619, 2.436043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.855, "volume": 297331, "typical_volume": 432366.5, "trend": 2.334333, "fair_value": 2.631162, "relative_strength": -25.29949, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.252111, "energy": 61.086014, "activity_lines": [ 2.046333, 2.235636, 2.41181, 2.404978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.875, "volume": 242035, "typical_volume": 423911.3, "trend": 2.326833, "fair_value": 2.625682, "relative_strength": -25.097897, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.37509, "energy": 68.445232, "activity_lines": [ 1.954333, 2.143182, 2.35031, 2.375344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }