{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cdd8153-d678-4a35-b467-5338e241e4ea", "symbol": "AUSAUW", "name": "UBS MSCI Australia UCITS ETF AUD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.594, "architecture_energy": 88.315, "architecture_maturity": 19.775, "architecture_confidence": 61.295, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 86.27, "upward_expansion": 96.78, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 9.08, "downward_expansion": 18.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.609999, 33.181181, 32.825738, 32.575387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.474998, "trend_reference": 32.153833, "distance_from_trend": 0.072189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.702888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.578974, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117323, "excess_performance": -0.053569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.323745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17680, "relative_activity": 0.988864, "balance": 2.323745, "dry_up": 0.791469, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018151, "annualized_volatility": 0.14563, "from_high_reference": -0.349167, "from_low_reference": 0.249321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.153833, "fair_value_reference": 28.702888, "structural_low": 30.469999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.000947, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.015993, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.07893, "worst_return": -0.088478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003003, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036321, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.851148, "worst_return": -0.137474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01907, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049274, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.054303, "worst_return": -0.081992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.043696, "energy": 37.703193, "activity_lines": [ 32.581, 32.465182, 32.364166, 32.126774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.959999, "volume": 14225, "typical_volume": 23711.6, "trend": 31.701166, "fair_value": 28.524683, "relative_strength": -7.038866, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.022997, "energy": 41.085752, "activity_lines": [ 32.703, 32.567272, 32.431976, 32.21714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.235001, "volume": 6651, "typical_volume": 22724.35, "trend": 31.833667, "fair_value": 28.578017, "relative_strength": -5.956934, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.120878, "energy": 60.193456, "activity_lines": [ 32.903333, 32.711091, 32.526476, 32.316097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.355, "volume": 18047, "typical_volume": 22208.6, "trend": 31.977333, "fair_value": 28.635933, "relative_strength": -6.091114, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.922522, "energy": 68.130532, "activity_lines": [ 33.102333, 32.854909, 32.626595, 32.414247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.474998, "volume": 17680, "typical_volume": 17879.1, "trend": 32.153833, "fair_value": 28.702888, "relative_strength": -5.578974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.593613, "energy": 88.315477, "activity_lines": [ 33.609999, 33.181181, 32.825738, 32.575387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }