{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cdf7301-3799-4ffe-8993-1738a66e15a1", "symbol": "JTLIND", "name": "JTL Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.509, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.462, "architecture_energy": 20.411, "architecture_maturity": 42.821, "architecture_confidence": 92.715, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.3, "rotation_up": 29.16, "upward_expansion": 57.2, "deceleration": 86.49, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 18.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.564665, 76.423454, 75.059857, 71.945419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 77.309998, "trend_reference": 69.307666, "distance_from_trend": 0.115461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.963561, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.953878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145503, "excess_performance": 0.189212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140652, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.064859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21598150, "relative_activity": 1.167645, "balance": 1.064859, "dry_up": 0.632745, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089311, "annualized_volatility": 0.649551, "from_high_reference": -0.113417, "from_low_reference": 0.920745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.307666, "fair_value_reference": 89.963561, "structural_low": 40.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090213, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067168, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.165251, "worst_return": 0.087577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.207945, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207945, "worst_return": 0.207945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.028954, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.109619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028954, "worst_return": 0.028954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.556809, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026415, 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79.004667, 76.433637, 72.867857, 70.065398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.699997, "volume": 7562700, "typical_volume": 18321816.4, "trend": 67.493666, "fair_value": 90.392862, "relative_strength": 11.501919, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.645816, "energy": 48.102969, "activity_lines": [ 77.773333, 76.34, 73.499, 70.560559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.639999, "volume": 10839175, "typical_volume": 18118527.1, "trend": 67.931, "fair_value": 90.249781, "relative_strength": 11.042342, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.740976, "energy": 29.091218, "activity_lines": [ 75.874666, 75.997272, 73.881238, 70.89258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.389999, "volume": 6815993, "typical_volume": 17822975.4, "trend": 68.45, "fair_value": 90.09796, "relative_strength": 12.16321, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.273218, "energy": 20.779589, "activity_lines": [ 75.331999, 76.081999, 74.434143, 71.373806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.309998, "volume": 21598150, "typical_volume": 18497186.1, "trend": 69.307666, "fair_value": 89.963561, "relative_strength": 13.953878, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.461958, "energy": 20.411071, "activity_lines": [ 75.564665, 76.423454, 75.059857, 71.945419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }