{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ce0eaf1-b954-4f01-b012-7451770ed031", "symbol": "000525", "name": "Nanjing Red Sun Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.337, "architecture_energy": 35.57, "architecture_maturity": 91.907, "architecture_confidence": 90.527, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.23, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 19.54, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 32.08, "downward_expansion": 67.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.444, 4.331455, 4.590476, 4.958882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 5.365667, "distance_from_trend": -0.161334, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.829515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.932329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222798, "excess_performance": -0.230198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160656, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065238, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105342481, "relative_activity": 1.110908, "balance": 0.516426, "dry_up": 1.17172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084103, "annualized_volatility": 0.411781, "from_high_reference": -0.392713, "from_low_reference": 0.181102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.365667, "fair_value_reference": 5.829515, "structural_low": 3.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.012658, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.024268, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.350074, "worst_return": -0.165171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008654, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.427632, "worst_return": -0.117089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107595, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.097385, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.10115, "worst_return": -0.142342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-26.655139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.89678, "energy": 63.101862, "activity_lines": [ 4.188667, 4.254364, 4.685143, 5.066409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.66, "volume": 113560975, "typical_volume": 102535726.3, "trend": 5.397667, "fair_value": 5.843314, "relative_strength": -19.317094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.233528, "energy": 47.362201, "activity_lines": [ 4.367333, 4.304182, 4.639762, 5.016796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 105342481, "typical_volume": 94825586.35, "trend": 5.365667, "fair_value": 5.829515, "relative_strength": -24.932329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.337464, "energy": 35.570161, "activity_lines": [ 4.444, 4.331455, 4.590476, 4.958882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }