{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ce71e4c-129f-4529-b7b3-7cc40f4a6153", "symbol": "PIC-A", "name": "Premium Income Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.119, "architecture_energy": 22.65, "architecture_maturity": 71.117, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.99, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 54.62, "deceleration": 93.88, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 20.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.774011, 11.000355, 10.705972, 10.129454 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.84, "trend_reference": 9.414152, "distance_from_trend": 0.151458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.360428, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.022227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.687199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.336798, "excess_performance": 0.216377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.022227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038517, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.196872, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.336798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.335525, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 310500, "relative_activity": 1.084485, "balance": 4.335525, "dry_up": 1.28453, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078036, "annualized_volatility": 0.36773, "from_high_reference": -0.158385, "from_low_reference": 1.057277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.414152, "fair_value_reference": 5.360428, "structural_low": 7.382108, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004127, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.211887, "worst_return": -0.059334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082597, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.045664, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.68852, "worst_return": -0.110145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000408, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.51849, "worst_return": -0.289815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.207119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 549000, "typical_volume": 277699.5, "trend": 9.082145, "fair_value": 5.233684, "relative_strength": 29.747557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.413676, "energy": 51.471757, "activity_lines": [ 11.220043, 11.207782, 10.461444, 9.842299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.56, "volume": 346800, "typical_volume": 284584.0, "trend": 9.199836, "fair_value": 5.275497, "relative_strength": 22.053261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.853099, "energy": 28.214958, "activity_lines": [ 10.916699, 11.128686, 10.544015, 9.937644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.65, "volume": 264800, "typical_volume": 280790.5, "trend": 9.317107, "fair_value": 5.317354, "relative_strength": 22.473477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.719038, "energy": 25.201833, "activity_lines": [ 10.748688, 11.04843, 10.622668, 10.031203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.84, "volume": 310500, "typical_volume": 286311.0, "trend": 9.414152, "fair_value": 5.360428, "relative_strength": 19.687199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.11928, "energy": 22.649968, "activity_lines": [ 10.774011, 11.000355, 10.705972, 10.129454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }