{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cec6a76-e5c5-4c98-8dd1-74b202126922", "symbol": "688039", "name": "Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.035, "architecture_energy": 57.762, "architecture_maturity": 52.569, "architecture_confidence": 79.461, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.53, "rotation_up": 12.3, "upward_expansion": 10.34, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 64.67, "downward_expansion": 81.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.344667, 35.844364, 38.553286, 40.689506 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.470001, "trend_reference": 44.590334, "distance_from_trend": -0.18211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.347949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.785682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.343947, "excess_performance": -0.300743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.343947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.770876, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13629051, "relative_activity": 1.253735, "balance": 1.770876, "dry_up": 1.129527, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147961, "annualized_volatility": 0.683601, "from_high_reference": -0.486121, "from_low_reference": 0.253265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.590334, "fair_value_reference": 35.347949, "structural_low": 29.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009809, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.013494, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.668867, "worst_return": -0.332834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.053412, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.082461, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.773971, "worst_return": -0.299754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.204418, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.237921, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.759635, "worst_return": -0.46017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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35.330128, "relative_strength": -34.199839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.219482, "energy": 78.894283, "activity_lines": [ 34.247334, 37.083637, 39.606191, 41.956452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.959999, "volume": 11202794, "typical_volume": 10608405.75, "trend": 44.866334, "fair_value": 35.326026, "relative_strength": -25.552971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.021909, "energy": 61.08019, "activity_lines": [ 33.812, 36.118545, 38.931238, 41.231205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.470001, "volume": 13629051, "typical_volume": 10870763.2, "trend": 44.590334, "fair_value": 35.347949, "relative_strength": -21.785682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.034922, "energy": 57.761816, "activity_lines": [ 34.344667, 35.844364, 38.553286, 40.689506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }