{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cecd0d4-9691-4bbf-9878-f170dc588e5d", "symbol": "PFP", "name": "Propel Funeral Partners Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.369, "architecture_energy": 35.773, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.16, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 31.71, "downward_expansion": 63.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.258, 3.208909, 3.317667, 3.52367 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.41, "trend_reference": 3.856975, "distance_from_trend": -0.115888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.77982, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.342056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296322, "excess_performance": -0.360028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578315, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1027215, "relative_activity": 1.410391, "balance": 0.578315, "dry_up": 0.999467, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066095, "annualized_volatility": 0.328065, "from_high_reference": -0.339213, "from_low_reference": 0.175862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.856975, "fair_value_reference": 4.77982, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.007707, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.007476, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.064588, "worst_return": -0.129834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006888, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01319, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162435, "worst_return": -0.236842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284381, "worst_return": -0.015375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.21, "volume": 598560, "typical_volume": 739603.3, "trend": 4.075703, "fair_value": 4.798431, "relative_strength": -26.930861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.280642, "energy": 64.35817, "activity_lines": [ 3.155333, 3.214545, 3.456208, 3.71807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.2, "volume": 441579, "typical_volume": 705665.3, "trend": 4.016905, "fair_value": 4.794217, "relative_strength": -26.625878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.866112, "energy": 59.179451, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.196, 3.410095, 3.661573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.11, "volume": 651515, "typical_volume": 713150.4, "trend": 3.956746, "fair_value": 4.788424, "relative_strength": -27.987621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.328004, "energy": 57.247501, "activity_lines": [ 3.168667, 3.169636, 3.361143, 3.603063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.22, "volume": 791416, "typical_volume": 712107.2, "trend": 3.903858, "fair_value": 4.783277, "relative_strength": -26.707792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.901889, "energy": 46.907996, "activity_lines": [ 3.184, 3.169818, 3.327762, 3.555531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.41, "volume": 1027215, "typical_volume": 728319.35, "trend": 3.856975, "fair_value": 4.77982, "relative_strength": -24.342056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.368819, "energy": 35.772702, "activity_lines": [ 3.258, 3.208909, 3.317667, 3.52367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }