{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ceedb40-2de6-4469-9279-a255e0fa3ddf", "symbol": "GFI", "name": "Gold Fields Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.231, "architecture_energy": 34.834, "architecture_maturity": 49.915, "architecture_confidence": 73.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.87, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 62.26, "rotation_down": 46.45, "downward_expansion": 71.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.333333, 35.039818, 37.200381, 39.634192 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.82, "trend_reference": 43.005339, "distance_from_trend": -0.050816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.234822, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.684353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.916463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212998, "excess_performance": -0.338623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.684353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212998, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541822, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23177059, "relative_activity": 1.373452, "balance": 0.541822, "dry_up": 1.093872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102871, "annualized_volatility": 0.636667, "from_high_reference": -0.3168, "from_low_reference": 0.455528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.005339, "fair_value_reference": 24.234822, "structural_low": 31.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.055003, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.054502, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.313749, "worst_return": -0.103082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.27507, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.214874, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.667543, "worst_return": -0.113722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.481368, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.436385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.719402, "worst_return": 0.446532, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.83996, "energy": 73.289116, "activity_lines": [ 33.222, 34.646182, 37.836095, 40.494104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.42, "volume": 16485947, "typical_volume": 16838773.5, "trend": 43.120931, "fair_value": 24.049021, "relative_strength": -27.465736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.869168, "energy": 72.229849, "activity_lines": [ 32.840667, 34.014727, 37.087, 39.78264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.82, "volume": 23177059, "typical_volume": 16875039.6, "trend": 43.005339, "fair_value": 24.234822, "relative_strength": -11.916463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.231375, "energy": 34.833872, "activity_lines": [ 35.333333, 35.039818, 37.200381, 39.634192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }