{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cf33e3a-dcb6-4159-b6a3-7698c4396af4", "symbol": "NE", "name": "Noble Corporation plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.361, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.644, "architecture_energy": 15.998, "architecture_maturity": 27.86, "architecture_confidence": 54.684, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.19, "rotation_up": 31.92, "upward_expansion": 21.09, "deceleration": 51.82, "rotation_down": 29.39, "downward_expansion": 34.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.746667, 41.332364, 43.656897, 44.401195 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.77, "trend_reference": 43.909967, "distance_from_trend": -0.071509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.914334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.006196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062662, "excess_performance": -0.062963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5920924, "relative_activity": 0.782044, "balance": 0.499342, "dry_up": 1.112945, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0894, "annualized_volatility": 0.411305, "from_high_reference": -0.250515, "from_low_reference": 0.642383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.909967, "fair_value_reference": 34.914334, "structural_low": 36.76, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006567, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.144754, "worst_return": -0.148306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025225, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037178, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.146266, "worst_return": -0.135767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090885, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.094596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.758879, "worst_return": -0.228891, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.683807, "energy": 58.624879, "activity_lines": [ 39.979333, 41.9369, 44.725279, 44.578124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.26, "volume": 7696717, "typical_volume": 7575825.9, "trend": 43.077461, "fair_value": 34.960606, "relative_strength": 9.973865, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.642209, "energy": 32.640585, "activity_lines": [ 41.101333, 41.773523, 44.470162, 44.623915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.4, "volume": 12740619, "typical_volume": 7829260.75, "trend": 43.544696, "fair_value": 34.944202, "relative_strength": 5.962026, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.441793, "energy": 17.781171, "activity_lines": [ 41.831333, 41.618862, 44.133031, 44.580208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.77, "volume": 5920924, "typical_volume": 7571086.6, "trend": 43.909967, "fair_value": 34.914334, "relative_strength": -2.006196, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.644257, "energy": 15.998178, "activity_lines": [ 41.746667, 41.332364, 43.656897, 44.401195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }