{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1cf75bd3-dd57-438b-892a-06e80bb2153d", "symbol": "WIA", "name": "WIA Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.439, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.222, "architecture_energy": 55.006, "architecture_maturity": 9.117, "architecture_confidence": 79.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.24, "rotation_up": 14.69, "upward_expansion": 14.94, "deceleration": 33.93, "rotation_down": 67.6, "downward_expansion": 83.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.427667, 0.444455, 0.457881, 0.46229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.425, "trend_reference": 0.4665, "distance_from_trend": -0.08896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.222744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.908023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.777982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075949, "excess_performance": 0.012244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022653, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.908023, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.734466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2240599, "relative_activity": 0.308967, "balance": 0.699429, "dry_up": 0.739056, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126244, "annualized_volatility": 0.716221, "from_high_reference": -0.285714, "from_low_reference": 0.440678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4665, "fair_value_reference": 0.222744, "structural_low": 0.38, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.061217, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.053648, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.292309, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015388, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041265, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.235322, "worst_return": -0.244891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.099093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.098392, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.235353, "worst_return": -0.300006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.535, "volume": 10076854, "typical_volume": 8007060.8, "trend": 0.476, "fair_value": 0.212984, "relative_strength": 27.264784, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.822912, "energy": 33.829021, "activity_lines": [ 0.491, 0.480818, 0.477786, 0.476409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.405, "volume": 10416980, "typical_volume": 8027287.55, "trend": 0.4735, "fair_value": 0.215321, "relative_strength": -4.078986, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.654066, "energy": 21.976221, "activity_lines": [ 0.467, 0.467182, 0.470643, 0.471828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.415, "volume": 5599523, "typical_volume": 7677859.75, "trend": 0.470667, "fair_value": 0.217763, "relative_strength": -1.958452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.619084, "energy": 29.410608, "activity_lines": [ 0.448667, 0.457, 0.465119, 0.468054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.425, "volume": 3181180, "typical_volume": 7452105.45, "trend": 0.468667, "fair_value": 0.220256, "relative_strength": -2.377812, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.140254, "energy": 45.948693, "activity_lines": [ 0.437333, 0.450182, 0.46131, 0.465108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.425, "volume": 2240599, "typical_volume": 7251914.25, "trend": 0.4665, "fair_value": 0.222744, "relative_strength": -5.777982, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.222079, "energy": 55.00637, "activity_lines": [ 0.427667, 0.444455, 0.457881, 0.46229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }