{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d046250-e054-46e5-8beb-a4119261388d", "symbol": "LGP", "name": "Little Green Pharma Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.329, "architecture_energy": 43.97, "architecture_maturity": 95.383, "architecture_confidence": 58.713, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.73, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 19.65, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 67.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.073933, 0.073255, 0.079771, 0.085639 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.09535, "distance_from_trend": -0.213424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.119263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.615596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.387755, "excess_performance": -0.451461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371137, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147685, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.387755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450560, "relative_activity": 0.663864, "balance": 1.020395, "dry_up": 1.409969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098462, "annualized_volatility": 0.444052, "from_high_reference": -0.482759, "from_low_reference": 0.209677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09535, "fair_value_reference": 0.119263, "structural_low": 0.062, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.029153, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.593407, "worst_return": -0.288889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.171212, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.159781, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.321429, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.289293, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.100817, "fair_value": 0.121564, "relative_strength": -31.703669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.646772, "energy": 75.924706, "activity_lines": [ 0.071467, 0.075745, 0.083814, 0.090502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.072, "volume": 1344863, "typical_volume": 709839.85, "trend": 0.098717, "fair_value": 0.12084, "relative_strength": -34.672906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.079215, "energy": 63.790495, "activity_lines": [ 0.071733, 0.074182, 0.082138, 0.088643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 446642, "typical_volume": 689343.15, "trend": 0.09685, "fair_value": 0.120064, "relative_strength": -33.81952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.709055, "energy": 56.278041, "activity_lines": [ 0.073, 0.073436, 0.080833, 0.087048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 450560, "typical_volume": 678693.15, "trend": 0.09535, "fair_value": 0.119263, "relative_strength": -34.615596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.329403, "energy": 43.969811, "activity_lines": [ 0.073933, 0.073255, 0.079771, 0.085639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }