{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d0d6034-2758-43ee-8846-ede5be1ff2cd", "symbol": "EPX", "name": "EPX Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.573, "architecture_energy": 62.024, "architecture_maturity": 57.167, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.58, "rotation_up": 26.48, "upward_expansion": 24.74, "deceleration": 49.25, "rotation_down": 54.24, "downward_expansion": 79.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.167333, 0.167182, 0.182167, 0.193548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.19, "trend_reference": 0.21, "distance_from_trend": -0.095238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.248017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.592126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.208333, "excess_performance": -0.272039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233925, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374789, "relative_activity": 3.786029, "balance": 0.477171, "dry_up": 1.470223, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072874, "annualized_volatility": 0.848855, "from_high_reference": -0.55814, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.21, "fair_value_reference": 0.248017, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.03704, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02263, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.166667, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069748, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263159, "worst_return": -0.429977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-69.572998, "energy": 78.760894, "activity_lines": [ 0.167, 0.178727, 0.195738, 0.207387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.165, "volume": 24106, "typical_volume": 77644.5, "trend": 0.220833, "fair_value": 0.249984, "relative_strength": -36.603275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.936302, "energy": 82.153322, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.174091, 0.191738, 0.203538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.155, "volume": 17044, "typical_volume": 75816.7, "trend": 0.216667, "fair_value": 0.249043, "relative_strength": -39.706207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.654219, "energy": 90.689186, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.168818, 0.18719, 0.19929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.15, "volume": 166226, "typical_volume": 84124.85, "trend": 0.212333, "fair_value": 0.24819, "relative_strength": -42.434135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.146367, "energy": 91.315626, "activity_lines": [ 0.157667, 0.163818, 0.182595, 0.194989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.19, "volume": 374789, "typical_volume": 98992.65, "trend": 0.21, "fair_value": 0.248017, "relative_strength": -28.592126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.573411, "energy": 62.024312, "activity_lines": [ 0.167333, 0.167182, 0.182167, 0.193548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }