{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d0deaa5-fd20-480f-9093-eda4e296834c", "symbol": "RVLV", "name": "Revolve Group LLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.785, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.568, "architecture_energy": 40.638, "architecture_maturity": 5.253, "architecture_confidence": 61.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.42, "rotation_up": 62.6, "upward_expansion": 49.18, "deceleration": 21.59, "rotation_down": 15.09, "downward_expansion": 21.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.696667, 24.0, 22.980476, 23.133957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.27, "trend_reference": 23.895667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.044808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.939354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09844, "excess_performance": -0.224065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135603, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.423471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7116145, "relative_activity": 1.441879, "balance": 1.423471, "dry_up": 0.92951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09103, "annualized_volatility": 0.483171, "from_high_reference": -0.233902, "from_low_reference": 0.398847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.895667, "fair_value_reference": 22.044808, "structural_low": 17.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062609, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.044204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024948, "worst_return": -0.183258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.218823, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.146945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367568, "worst_return": -0.307021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.135411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293139, "worst_return": -0.325664, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017281, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234735, "active": false }, { 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-30.794889, "energy": 23.018154, "activity_lines": [ 22.243333, 21.263636, 22.048952, 23.066043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.93, "volume": 3268532, "typical_volume": 5344249.3, "trend": 24.579667, "fair_value": 21.8775, "relative_strength": -9.07744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.189448, "energy": 20.25321, "activity_lines": [ 23.041333, 21.778909, 22.164048, 23.01443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.88, "volume": 3375221, "typical_volume": 4928686.75, "trend": 24.442667, "fair_value": 21.91391, "relative_strength": -3.932651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.122031, "energy": 22.850663, "activity_lines": [ 23.819333, 22.486, 22.375619, 23.033806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.99, "volume": 3743812, "typical_volume": 4800902.3, "trend": 24.261667, "fair_value": 21.949872, "relative_strength": -2.898654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.290666, "energy": 29.942543, "activity_lines": [ 24.350667, 23.14, 22.599, 23.069118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.11, "volume": 4114578, "typical_volume": 4750760.6, "trend": 24.113333, "fair_value": 21.998205, "relative_strength": -3.538759, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.80422, "energy": 37.038455, "activity_lines": [ 24.708667, 23.699818, 22.834952, 23.123849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.27, "volume": 7116145, "typical_volume": 4935328.5, "trend": 23.895667, "fair_value": 22.044808, "relative_strength": -9.939354, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.568489, "energy": 40.637552, "activity_lines": [ 24.696667, 24.0, 22.980476, 23.133957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }