{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d12c168-140e-4855-a6f1-6f623386ddec", "symbol": "ALSEC", "name": "SODITECH", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.563, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.297, "architecture_energy": 21.297, "architecture_maturity": 11.912, "architecture_confidence": 50.752, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.43, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 11.09, "deceleration": 55.66, "rotation_down": 48.84, "downward_expansion": 48.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.273333, 6.306545, 6.542762, 6.595656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 6.54, "distance_from_trend": 0.003058, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.751474, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.384176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.26864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07541, "excess_performance": 0.022098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003058, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.384176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112686, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7371, "relative_activity": 0.587569, "balance": 0.707533, "dry_up": 0.764155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097092, "annualized_volatility": 0.591809, "from_high_reference": -0.174843, "from_low_reference": 2.12381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.54, "fair_value_reference": 2.751474, "structural_low": 5.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15942, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.122857, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.971631, "worst_return": -0.04878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.181447, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.198582, "worst_return": 0.021739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.149756, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.269504, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.957447, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.709768, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 4.144231, "worst_return": -0.275362, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.214953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07541, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.56, "volume": 3441, "typical_volume": 2416.8, "trend": 1.548667, "fair_value": 1.032071, "relative_strength": -1.294855, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.492819, "energy": 28.516634, "activity_lines": [ 1.602667, 1.551818, 1.538619, 1.548516 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.64, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2416.55, "trend": 1.553333, "fair_value": 1.039571, "relative_strength": 3.1375, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.26798, "energy": 43.318671, "activity_lines": [ 1.624, 1.574364, 1.54681, 1.554409 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.64, "volume": 3542, "typical_volume": 2547.5, "trend": 1.561667, "fair_value": 1.046878, "relative_strength": 2.440492, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.002105, "energy": 37.851416, "activity_lines": [ 1.629333, 1.594727, 1.55519, 1.56 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 1.64, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2516.65, "trend": 1.57, "fair_value": 1.054365, "relative_strength": 3.587826, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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6.665677 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 6.76, "volume": 949, "typical_volume": 22380.8, "trend": 6.321, "fair_value": 2.541859, "relative_strength": 31.158306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.007181, "energy": 27.870198, "activity_lines": [ 7.077333, 7.059636, 6.917048, 6.699505 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 6.2, "volume": 4067, "typical_volume": 21905.9, "trend": 6.363667, "fair_value": 2.572756, "relative_strength": 18.924912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.10275, "energy": 10.862883, "activity_lines": [ 6.757333, 6.926909, 6.859429, 6.691699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.4, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 21489.5, "trend": 6.425, "fair_value": 2.604103, "relative_strength": 19.03216, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.91673, "energy": 16.46826, "activity_lines": [ 6.584, 6.830545, 6.820381, 6.694043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.02, "volume": 5648, "typical_volume": 18444.35, "trend": 6.444, "fair_value": 2.633141, "relative_strength": 12.614664, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.129626, "energy": 30.212319, "activity_lines": [ 6.342667, 6.658182, 6.743, 6.667914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.1, "volume": 8094, "typical_volume": 15801.1, "trend": 6.469, "fair_value": 2.663269, "relative_strength": 12.549895, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.570295, "energy": 42.393988, "activity_lines": [ 6.196, 6.520727, 6.67481, 6.64572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 12186, "typical_volume": 13977.6, "trend": 6.469, "fair_value": 2.687628, "relative_strength": -1.836559, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.971031, "energy": 63.162484, "activity_lines": [ 5.897333, 6.276727, 6.546143, 6.576753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.72, "volume": 10694, "typical_volume": 13160.15, "trend": 6.518, "fair_value": 2.720192, "relative_strength": 18.387539, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.164593, "energy": 42.589171, "activity_lines": [ 6.129333, 6.3, 6.550333, 6.592946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 7371, "typical_volume": 12544.9, "trend": 6.54, "fair_value": 2.751474, "relative_strength": 11.26864, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.296558, "energy": 21.296698, "activity_lines": [ 6.273333, 6.306545, 6.542762, 6.595656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }