{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d15c502-21d5-45e0-aab3-e02905953a45", "symbol": "SMS", "name": "Star Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.807, "architecture_energy": 34.027, "architecture_maturity": 68.878, "architecture_confidence": 62.912, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.47, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 40.51, "downward_expansion": 66.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039733, 0.039418, 0.042619, 0.045877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.0506, "distance_from_trend": -0.209486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.039759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.100095, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 970450, "relative_activity": 0.690203, "balance": 0.272384, "dry_up": 0.296894, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151923, "annualized_volatility": 0.612115, "from_high_reference": -0.506173, "from_low_reference": 0.481481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0506, "fair_value_reference": 0.039759, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006858, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.116279, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.112692, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.76, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021858, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"fair_value": 0.039784, "relative_strength": -28.063731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.458899, "energy": 84.01819, "activity_lines": [ 0.036867, 0.039673, 0.04431, 0.047772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.042, "volume": 204173, "typical_volume": 2103774.3, "trend": 0.0508, "fair_value": 0.039778, "relative_strength": -13.833733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.64059, "energy": 55.87638, "activity_lines": [ 0.0382, 0.039564, 0.043748, 0.047204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.041, "volume": 280829, "typical_volume": 1708233.8, "trend": 0.050767, "fair_value": 0.039771, "relative_strength": -18.277024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.86218, "energy": 46.119247, "activity_lines": [ 0.039267, 0.039473, 0.043186, 0.046572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 970450, "typical_volume": 1406035.95, "trend": 0.0506, "fair_value": 0.039759, "relative_strength": -23.100095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.806817, "energy": 34.026976, "activity_lines": [ 0.039733, 0.039418, 0.042619, 0.045877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }