{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d171b88-7538-4336-9124-30a28240a30c", "symbol": "ICON", "name": "Iconic Labs Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.329, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.644, "architecture_energy": 40.981, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.283, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.67, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 9.12, "deceleration": 39.46, "rotation_down": 56.87, "downward_expansion": 80.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014833, 0.015827, 0.015961, 0.016628 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0135, "trend_reference": 0.018088, "distance_from_trend": -0.253663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.046027, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.706691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.994153, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.431579, "excess_performance": -0.482814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.706691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094513, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.431579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.396585, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 597527, "relative_activity": 0.610888, "balance": 2.396585, "dry_up": 0.387699, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323362, "annualized_volatility": 0.731994, "from_high_reference": -0.72837, "from_low_reference": 0.279621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018088, "fair_value_reference": 0.046027, "structural_low": 0.01055, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.236111, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.260117, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.193467, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.36, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.408758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.8625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.655417, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.695553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.383333, "worst_return": -0.9275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.631579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307692, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.3, "volume": 145413, "typical_volume": 209696.1, "trend": 0.46, "fair_value": 1.263462, "relative_strength": -67.472101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.500045, "energy": 9.546474, "activity_lines": [ 0.0173, 0.016832, 0.016555, 0.017617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0165, "volume": 466535, "typical_volume": 1018654.3, "trend": 0.019122, "fair_value": 0.053437, "relative_strength": -27.785347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.720859, "energy": 9.320407, "activity_lines": [ 0.0171, 0.016855, 0.016502, 0.01743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0165, "volume": 75422, "typical_volume": 1001666.65, "trend": 0.018838, "fair_value": 0.050979, "relative_strength": -28.190644, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.900049, "energy": 9.027231, "activity_lines": [ 0.0169, 0.01685, 0.016485, 0.017261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 377396, "typical_volume": 949914.55, "trend": 0.018472, "fair_value": 0.048504, "relative_strength": -39.234223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.30037, "energy": 24.747148, "activity_lines": [ 0.015867, 0.016386, 0.016233, 0.016949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0135, "volume": 597527, "typical_volume": 978129.25, "trend": 0.018088, "fair_value": 0.046027, "relative_strength": -40.994153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.64409, "energy": 40.980781, "activity_lines": [ 0.014833, 0.015827, 0.015961, 0.016628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }