{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d181d1f-6704-449c-82fa-bbbd824c4476", "symbol": "JEPQ", "name": "JPM Nasdaq Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF USD Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.273, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.809, "architecture_energy": 23.762, "architecture_maturity": 57.216, "architecture_confidence": 79.64, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.97, "rotation_up": 31.44, "upward_expansion": 59.54, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 31.76, "downward_expansion": 20.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.336333, 23.443469, 23.314913, 22.97542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.725, "trend_reference": 22.559456, "distance_from_trend": 0.051665, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.951485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.87894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107027, "excess_performance": -0.063865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031056, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.140294, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112635, "relative_activity": 1.074417, "balance": 2.140294, "dry_up": 1.833971, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030412, "annualized_volatility": 0.131411, "from_high_reference": -0.035569, "from_low_reference": 0.215003 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.559456, "fair_value_reference": 20.951485, "structural_low": 20.791906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 21.714756, "volume": 7938, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 21.736336, "volume": 27390, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 21.705721, "volume": 11642, 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"modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.785336, "volume": 8731, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 106741, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.16, "volume": 118499, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.25, "volume": 311831, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.85, "volume": 226082, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.725, "volume": 112635, "typical_volume": 104833.6, "trend": 22.559456, "fair_value": 20.951485, "relative_strength": -6.87894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.80878, "energy": 23.762358, "activity_lines": [ 23.336333, 23.443469, 23.314913, 22.97542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }