{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d1a811d-1d50-46f8-8ec3-1365a307418e", "symbol": "PSO", "name": "Pearson PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.976, "architecture_energy": 55.77, "architecture_maturity": 59.552, "architecture_confidence": 76.919, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 57.48, "upward_expansion": 82.68, "deceleration": 67.24, "rotation_down": 22.82, "downward_expansion": 9.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.645333, 16.436545, 15.840571, 15.199151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.46, "trend_reference": 14.350162, "distance_from_trend": 0.147025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.430037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.257437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.367304, "excess_performance": 0.24168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042574, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.367304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3679115, "relative_activity": 0.81112, "balance": 1.261848, "dry_up": 0.959305, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051266, "annualized_volatility": 0.240514, "from_high_reference": -0.072415, "from_low_reference": 0.394605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.350162, "fair_value_reference": 13.430037, "structural_low": 11.807535, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.024485, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": 0.026392, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.062246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041037, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.035365, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.167932, "worst_return": -0.065868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05612, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.004841, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.259909, "worst_return": -0.091914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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9.514749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.762554, "energy": 82.829604, "activity_lines": [ 16.212, 15.765091, 15.115491, 14.544416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.92, "volume": 6330879, "typical_volume": 4849166.55, "trend": 14.073093, "fair_value": 13.30461, "relative_strength": 11.250983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.928136, "energy": 89.588384, "activity_lines": [ 16.555333, 16.033273, 15.350429, 14.734764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.29, "volume": 3215665, "typical_volume": 4751558.7, "trend": 14.15132, "fair_value": 13.342529, "relative_strength": 7.752456, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.798366, "energy": 82.904141, "activity_lines": [ 16.588, 16.149455, 15.505113, 14.87779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.94, "volume": 4179380, "typical_volume": 4639324.75, "trend": 14.267578, "fair_value": 13.388088, "relative_strength": 10.949755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.08489, "energy": 69.349114, "activity_lines": [ 16.743333, 16.352545, 15.705476, 15.057705 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.46, "volume": 3679115, "typical_volume": 4535845.95, "trend": 14.350162, "fair_value": 13.430037, "relative_strength": 4.257437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.97597, "energy": 55.770411, "activity_lines": [ 16.645333, 16.436545, 15.840571, 15.199151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }