{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d249cf6-97ea-4173-8112-8201df166963", "symbol": "EL4Y", "name": "Deka STOXX Europe 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.275, "architecture_energy": 78.388, "architecture_maturity": 38.822, "architecture_confidence": 90.569, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 66.14, "upward_expansion": 89.63, "deceleration": 50.3, "rotation_down": 21.12, "downward_expansion": 16.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.016666, 54.616986, 53.499323, 52.634322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.75, "trend_reference": 51.745897, "distance_from_trend": 0.07738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.149772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.910247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09782, "excess_performance": 0.03318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07738, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.706656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42843, "relative_activity": 1.445036, "balance": 2.706656, "dry_up": 1.036152, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018444, "annualized_volatility": 0.146258, "from_high_reference": -0.003753, "from_low_reference": 0.271145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.745897, "fair_value_reference": 44.149772, "structural_low": 46.522691, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.005789, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": 0.004941, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.061606, "worst_return": -0.109467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028026, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.017412, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.090608, "worst_return": -0.01917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041715, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011187, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119781, "worst_return": -0.060532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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54.265334, 53.714128, 52.527779, 51.903291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.73, "volume": 21973, "typical_volume": 31015.5, "trend": 51.367946, "fair_value": 43.912393, "relative_strength": 7.599783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.540215, "energy": 81.41806, "activity_lines": [ 54.458, 54.007201, 52.837862, 52.133797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.939999, "volume": 43635, "typical_volume": 30097.95, "trend": 51.563917, "fair_value": 44.029713, "relative_strength": 5.457151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.011199, "energy": 64.635975, "activity_lines": [ 54.642666, 54.263326, 53.142964, 52.364252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.75, "volume": 42843, "typical_volume": 29648.4, "trend": 51.745897, "fair_value": 44.149772, "relative_strength": 3.910247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.275408, "energy": 78.388273, "activity_lines": [ 55.016666, 54.616986, 53.499323, 52.634322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }