{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d256904-4980-4c2e-9a7f-e94d54dae3f5", "symbol": "IFV", "name": "FIRST TRUST DORSEY WRIGHT INTERNATIONAL FOCUS 5 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.837, "architecture_energy": 59.967, "architecture_maturity": 3.239, "architecture_confidence": 84.04, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.6, "rotation_up": 9.79, "upward_expansion": 12.51, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 70.28, "downward_expansion": 88.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.589247, 25.921102, 26.450063, 26.472269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.1014, "trend_reference": 26.51208, "distance_from_trend": -0.01549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.341519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.637013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035667, "excess_performance": -0.223121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.814626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139542, "relative_activity": 0.519572, "balance": 0.814626, "dry_up": 0.753007, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041952, "annualized_volatility": 0.207973, "from_high_reference": -0.082082, "from_low_reference": 0.133103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.51208, "fair_value_reference": 21.341519, "structural_low": 24.291467, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.001816, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.002794, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.081149, "worst_return": -0.11988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051354, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010111, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.048637, "worst_return": -0.144177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002147, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199325, "worst_return": -0.208669, "sufficient": 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-10.713517, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.747078, "energy": 36.4574, "activity_lines": [ 26.004263, 26.518872, 26.723362, 26.656243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.2147, "volume": 170857, "typical_volume": 296567.8, "trend": 26.495743, "fair_value": 21.232752, "relative_strength": -9.169931, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.532646, "energy": 51.542504, "activity_lines": [ 25.628307, 26.223816, 26.599259, 26.574141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.3154, "volume": 192834, "typical_volume": 286868.3, "trend": 26.500065, "fair_value": 21.284465, "relative_strength": -9.133096, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.478905, "energy": 67.346542, "activity_lines": [ 25.438153, 25.982479, 26.487543, 26.497989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.1014, "volume": 139542, "typical_volume": 268570.95, "trend": 26.51208, "fair_value": 21.341519, "relative_strength": -10.637013, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.837247, "energy": 59.96737, "activity_lines": [ 25.589247, 25.921102, 26.450063, 26.472269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }