{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d262d68-33f8-400b-b398-27bbf187196d", "symbol": "LCAS", "name": "Amundi MSCI EM Asia ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.734, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.979, "architecture_energy": 26.515, "architecture_maturity": 65.507, "architecture_confidence": 77.945, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.03, "rotation_up": 17.82, "upward_expansion": 52.7, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 37.5, "downward_expansion": 18.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.156, 16.505127, 16.447981, 15.987419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.25, "trend_reference": 15.383333, "distance_from_trend": 0.056338, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.952124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.756657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155597, "excess_performance": -0.015295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056338, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144579, "relative_activity": 2.559974, "balance": 0.523602, "dry_up": 2.83568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047025, "annualized_volatility": 0.253187, "from_high_reference": -0.095514, "from_low_reference": 0.381568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.383333, "fair_value_reference": 12.952124, "structural_low": 13.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00844, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 10.978, "volume": 4379, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 11.116, "volume": 1059, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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16.351429, 15.811295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.114, "volume": 50823, "typical_volume": 36912.95, "trend": 15.2136, "fair_value": 12.879368, "relative_strength": 1.25342, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.518175, "energy": 24.85445, "activity_lines": [ 16.458933, 16.756, 16.393648, 15.876396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.984, "volume": 283941, "typical_volume": 49522.75, "trend": 15.299533, "fair_value": 12.914648, "relative_strength": -0.376807, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.243074, "energy": 25.977983, "activity_lines": [ 16.222667, 16.602836, 16.412971, 15.926099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.25, "volume": 144579, "typical_volume": 56476.75, "trend": 15.383333, "fair_value": 12.952124, "relative_strength": -1.756657, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.979459, "energy": 26.515282, "activity_lines": [ 16.156, 16.505127, 16.447981, 15.987419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }