{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d2faa11-8966-4aa3-8773-abc1f3f226c6", "symbol": "CHAR", "name": "Charlton Aria Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.298, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.243, "architecture_energy": 85.112, "architecture_maturity": 21.714, "architecture_confidence": 75.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.13, "rotation_up": 73.19, "upward_expansion": 96.22, "deceleration": 42.19, "rotation_down": 15.39, "downward_expansion": 20.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.889333, 10.857273, 10.809303, 10.754758 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.91, "trend_reference": 10.681163, "distance_from_trend": 0.021424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.373602, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051708, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.730141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036087, "excess_performance": -0.151366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 296134, "relative_activity": 7.087648, "balance": 1.424762, "dry_up": 2.050347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005958, "annualized_volatility": 0.015546, "from_high_reference": -0.008182, "from_low_reference": 0.059223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.681163, "fair_value_reference": 10.373602, "structural_low": 10.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015531, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009259, "worst_return": -0.000925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009251, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 9.9, "volume": 1351436, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 9.92, "volume": 2151816, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.679286, "energy": 55.849859, "activity_lines": [ 10.846667, 10.824, 10.776063, 10.722951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 39111, "typical_volume": 27000.4, "trend": 10.66583, "fair_value": 10.367507, "relative_strength": -5.54461, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.189252, "energy": 60.176413, "activity_lines": [ 10.869333, 10.840909, 10.79304, 10.739005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.91, "volume": 296134, "typical_volume": 41781.7, "trend": 10.681163, "fair_value": 10.373602, "relative_strength": -9.730141, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.242658, "energy": 85.111663, "activity_lines": [ 10.889333, 10.857273, 10.809303, 10.754758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }