{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d310d2e-f6d8-43e5-a36e-5d3aa18fa2cd", "symbol": "CONTX", "name": "ContextVision AB (publ)", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.864, "architecture_energy": 18.19, "architecture_maturity": 31.42, "architecture_confidence": 80.549, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.97, "rotation_up": 17.26, "upward_expansion": 7.12, "deceleration": 56.54, "rotation_down": 47.58, "downward_expansion": 70.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.406667, 3.415091, 3.463619, 3.457871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 3.48, "distance_from_trend": -0.022989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.373507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367266, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.266923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098143, "excess_performance": -0.223137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367266, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43007, "relative_activity": 0.386454, "balance": 0.729857, "dry_up": 0.499785, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081674, "annualized_volatility": 0.393781, "from_high_reference": -0.297521, "from_low_reference": 0.259259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.48, "fair_value_reference": 5.373507, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.018137, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.033839, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.243687, "worst_return": -0.096203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.080596, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.069011, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20202, "worst_return": -0.161074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.126381, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.150095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049677, "worst_return": -0.287879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.265932, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.415231, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.112785, "worst_return": -0.565152, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.237778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033557, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014228, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143577, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.492931, "volume": 53244, "typical_volume": 166808.0, "trend": 8.338656, "fair_value": 13.818724, "relative_strength": -3.110242, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", 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"typical_volume": 177124.7, "trend": 3.546333, "fair_value": 5.466927, "relative_strength": -21.112936, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.514106, "energy": 19.634188, "activity_lines": [ 3.409333, 3.432182, 3.479905, 3.478688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.4, "volume": 28222, "typical_volume": 141303.6, "trend": 3.52, "fair_value": 5.436789, "relative_strength": -22.213013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.975717, "energy": 24.18762, "activity_lines": [ 3.402, 3.421273, 3.474762, 3.469247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.44, "volume": 57181, "typical_volume": 123497.6, "trend": 3.496333, "fair_value": 5.405653, "relative_strength": -20.845568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.278914, "energy": 20.561346, "activity_lines": [ 3.408, 3.421273, 3.471476, 3.464086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 43007, "typical_volume": 111286.25, "trend": 3.48, "fair_value": 5.373507, "relative_strength": -21.266923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.863578, "energy": 18.190439, "activity_lines": [ 3.406667, 3.415091, 3.463619, 3.457871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }