{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d38082b-4700-409b-8f79-76e2b35248ef", "symbol": "MATI", "name": "Matichon Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.668, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.218, "architecture_energy": 26.779, "architecture_maturity": 13.514, "architecture_confidence": 65.432, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.01, "rotation_up": 60.45, "upward_expansion": 39.5, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 20.04, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.033333, 2.990909, 2.988135, 2.996515 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 3.022452, "distance_from_trend": 0.01904, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.139117, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.400675, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.43987, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023722, "excess_performance": -0.216047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01904, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.400675, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05656, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023722, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.758929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8700, "relative_activity": 0.990888, "balance": 1.758929, "dry_up": 0.338838, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031968, "annualized_volatility": 0.243983, "from_high_reference": -0.31408, "from_low_reference": 0.105093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.022452, "fair_value_reference": 5.139117, "structural_low": 2.787097, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031064, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.054463, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.211382, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.07, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203252, "worst_return": -0.177033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064101, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487805, "worst_return": -0.322148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045175, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487387, "worst_return": -0.320144, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.080154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.361179, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 11785.0, "trend": 7.319444, "fair_value": 6.356333, "relative_strength": 3.792534, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.64987, "energy": 42.186218, "activity_lines": [ 2.912, 2.932727, 2.963579, 2.992251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 13810.0, "trend": 3.028796, "fair_value": 5.224104, "relative_strength": -22.113031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.622715, "energy": 10.283061, "activity_lines": [ 2.970667, 2.952727, 2.972719, 2.995643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13690.0, "trend": 3.030817, "fair_value": 5.195781, "relative_strength": -21.566739, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.149174, "energy": 14.990968, "activity_lines": [ 3.017333, 2.973091, 2.982584, 2.998947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.94, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 8795.0, "trend": 3.026882, "fair_value": 5.167147, "relative_strength": -23.453248, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.284736, "energy": 24.127559, "activity_lines": [ 3.001333, 2.968, 2.97855, 2.993088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 8780.0, "trend": 3.022452, "fair_value": 5.139117, "relative_strength": -18.43987, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.218059, "energy": 26.778799, "activity_lines": [ 3.033333, 2.990909, 2.988135, 2.996515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }