{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d3e56ae-8696-44b7-8eb2-d4610b08968a", "symbol": "AWSRI", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.913, "architecture_energy": 48.777, "architecture_maturity": 63.978, "architecture_confidence": 77.301, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 43.79, "upward_expansion": 70.01, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 20.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.593, 27.626364, 27.259167, 26.624601 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.17, "trend_reference": 25.910064, "distance_from_trend": 0.087222, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.161693, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.314114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147216, "excess_performance": 0.064333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.331179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023141, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.704045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3366, "relative_activity": 0.630066, "balance": 2.704045, "dry_up": 1.02133, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020398, "annualized_volatility": 0.163042, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.269249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.910064, "fair_value_reference": 21.161693, "structural_low": 22.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026782, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006043, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.053364, "worst_return": -0.05007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046198, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.014042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064401, "worst_return": -0.069945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.152815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161367, "worst_return": 0.089172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151901, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.114668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198386, "worst_return": 0.105417, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037007, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051694, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009947, "active": false }, 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27.897001, 27.602909, 26.743119, 26.153637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.254999, "volume": 6049, "typical_volume": 6364.6, "trend": 25.592318, "fair_value": 20.953977, "relative_strength": 0.488285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.237591, "energy": 63.821913, "activity_lines": [ 27.727334, 27.584455, 26.870976, 26.268138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.26, "volume": 11863, "typical_volume": 5953.4, "trend": 25.692609, "fair_value": 21.021422, "relative_strength": 0.595845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.278481, "energy": 55.508645, "activity_lines": [ 27.553667, 27.558909, 26.988953, 26.37573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.17, "volume": 547, "typical_volume": 5538.15, "trend": 25.789899, "fair_value": 21.087197, "relative_strength": 0.11699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.443537, "energy": 43.347633, "activity_lines": [ 27.397333, 27.504818, 27.08481, 26.471046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.17, "volume": 3366, "typical_volume": 5342.3, "trend": 25.910064, "fair_value": 21.161693, "relative_strength": 2.314114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.913357, "energy": 48.77726, "activity_lines": [ 27.593, 27.626364, 27.259167, 26.624601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }