{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d3fb850-82e6-419f-ad60-847cf100f168", "symbol": "MVW", "name": "M Vest Water AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.322, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.849, "architecture_energy": 28.618, "architecture_maturity": 8.625, "architecture_confidence": 56.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.95, "rotation_up": 59.58, "upward_expansion": 44.63, "deceleration": 25.98, "rotation_down": 15.44, "downward_expansion": 17.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.11, 5.94, 5.824095, 5.868602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.2, "trend_reference": 6.003, "distance_from_trend": 0.032817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.24609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248128, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.125125, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04321, "excess_performance": -0.168204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248128, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.363689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41787, "relative_activity": 0.465954, "balance": 0.363689, "dry_up": 0.362659, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087469, "annualized_volatility": 0.385569, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.003, "fair_value_reference": 8.24609, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008902, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.04249, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.156757, "worst_return": -0.170792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.18074, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.284866, "worst_return": -0.269802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.18058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045894, "worst_return": -0.306931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.138, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.187812, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.048649, "worst_return": -0.301136, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068783, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133663, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.089552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00813, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.0, "volume": 10996, "typical_volume": 64032.75, "trend": 8.025667, "fair_value": 10.635509, "relative_strength": -1.901119, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.841671, "energy": 48.17735, 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5.69, 5.595455, 5.719524, 5.857935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.1, "volume": 28633, "typical_volume": 96802.5, "trend": 6.080667, "fair_value": 8.284103, "relative_strength": -21.449313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.698708, "energy": 15.330299, "activity_lines": [ 5.866667, 5.690909, 5.746476, 5.856473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 12877, "typical_volume": 93073.3, "trend": 6.052333, "fair_value": 8.273526, "relative_strength": -21.882749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.231443, "energy": 13.770539, "activity_lines": [ 6.003333, 5.79, 5.77619, 5.860946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0, "volume": 46797, "typical_volume": 92224.7, "trend": 6.029, "fair_value": 8.259423, "relative_strength": -23.266071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.95017, "energy": 19.408062, "activity_lines": [ 6.03, 5.85, 5.790429, 5.85757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.2, "volume": 41787, "typical_volume": 89680.6, "trend": 6.003, "fair_value": 8.24609, "relative_strength": -20.125125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.849136, "energy": 28.618068, "activity_lines": [ 6.11, 5.94, 5.824095, 5.868602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }