{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d4774e8-229c-450f-996f-59d3bf0ddf4f", "symbol": "603859", "name": "Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.583, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.485, "architecture_energy": 35.983, "architecture_maturity": 50.982, "architecture_confidence": 52.65, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.44, "rotation_up": 9.15, "upward_expansion": 11.24, "deceleration": 60.09, "rotation_down": 62.1, "downward_expansion": 65.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.883334, 42.852149, 43.429673, 43.178547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.560001, "trend_reference": 43.798177, "distance_from_trend": -0.02827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.116113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.01498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110368, "excess_performance": -0.067164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.483139, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64429977, "relative_activity": 1.454889, "balance": 1.483139, "dry_up": 1.127303, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156345, "annualized_volatility": 0.64721, "from_high_reference": -0.289008, "from_low_reference": 0.276928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.798177, "fair_value_reference": 32.116113, "structural_low": 33.330002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.038047, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.015305, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.172629, "worst_return": -0.25922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.086133, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.084683, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.086901, "worst_return": -0.233961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035585, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.057489, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.176004, "worst_return": -0.239537, 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37.369999, "volume": 49088987, "typical_volume": 41767539.0, "trend": 43.891177, "fair_value": 31.969876, "relative_strength": -9.20274, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.354442, "energy": 10.115639, "activity_lines": [ 44.874, 46.265033, 44.37532, 44.075527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.75, "volume": 40966645, "typical_volume": 41281366.25, "trend": 43.740843, "fair_value": 31.986179, "relative_strength": -16.502239, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.130065, "energy": 27.719458, "activity_lines": [ 40.781333, 44.211295, 43.61039, 43.485774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.200001, "volume": 45205397, "typical_volume": 42087763.7, "trend": 43.781177, "fair_value": 32.038237, "relative_strength": -3.887997, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.670435, "energy": 37.032685, "activity_lines": [ 39.715333, 43.264387, 43.406222, 43.257333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.560001, "volume": 64429977, "typical_volume": 44285139.4, "trend": 43.798177, "fair_value": 32.116113, "relative_strength": -1.01498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.485219, "energy": 35.983467, "activity_lines": [ 39.883334, 42.852149, 43.429673, 43.178547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }