{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d48e073-fc18-4a97-829b-223bca47b332", "symbol": "BLCR", "name": "BlackRock Large Cap Core ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.872, "architecture_energy": 28.162, "architecture_maturity": 60.501, "architecture_confidence": 87.367, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.77, "rotation_up": 32.85, "upward_expansion": 58.1, "deceleration": 88.03, "rotation_down": 27.03, "downward_expansion": 19.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.161333, 49.217648, 48.995771, 47.760187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.25, "trend_reference": 46.206433, "distance_from_trend": 0.087511, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.604418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.8093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.163427, "excess_performance": -0.024027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087511, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056331, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.411342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008093, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.063519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1744641, "relative_activity": 0.600056, "balance": 2.063519, "dry_up": 0.636815, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035648, "annualized_volatility": 0.180856, "from_high_reference": -0.015092, "from_low_reference": 0.347016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.206433, "fair_value_reference": 35.604418, "structural_low": 39.454569, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069637, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137381, "worst_return": 0.001894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.162197, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162197, "worst_return": 0.162197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.185355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041883, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 23.985297, "volume": 3537, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 25.190208, "volume": 3123, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 25.427068, "volume": 282, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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48.23, "volume": 1877410, "typical_volume": 7393684.45, "trend": 45.779803, "fair_value": 35.412118, "relative_strength": 2.461425, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.422262, "energy": 29.047006, "activity_lines": [ 48.862, 49.174204, 48.589056, 47.299739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.65, "volume": 1858031, "typical_volume": 3397014.65, "trend": 45.983257, "fair_value": 35.503414, "relative_strength": 2.670052, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.781995, "energy": 23.141746, "activity_lines": [ 48.729333, 49.041809, 48.732784, 47.484913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.25, "volume": 1744641, "typical_volume": 2907464.85, "trend": 46.206433, "fair_value": 35.604418, "relative_strength": 0.8093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.87178, "energy": 28.161942, "activity_lines": [ 49.161333, 49.217648, 48.995771, 47.760187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }