{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d4b4f8d-c954-4c53-9817-04d98a997942", "symbol": "300753", "name": "Jiangsu Apon Medical Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.958, "architecture_energy": 29.481, "architecture_maturity": 85.459, "architecture_confidence": 83.5, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.42, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 16.43, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 34.7, "downward_expansion": 66.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.52, 20.818364, 22.156333, 24.160172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.540001, "trend_reference": 27.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.134962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.728527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.967265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279461, "excess_performance": -0.286861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.711678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89705469, "relative_activity": 3.048322, "balance": 1.711678, "dry_up": 2.746084, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130547, "annualized_volatility": 0.556663, "from_high_reference": -0.466455, "from_low_reference": 0.392076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.212667, "fair_value_reference": 20.728527, "structural_low": 16.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.015651, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004519, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.314913, "worst_return": -0.190986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030301, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.689291, "worst_return": -0.242209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023477, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031775, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.727114, "worst_return": -0.303704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.290041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"fair_value": 20.630642, "relative_strength": -39.330187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.07793, "energy": 87.645877, "activity_lines": [ 20.234, 21.729091, 24.381286, 26.440129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.48, "volume": 35008342, "typical_volume": 21954152.0, "trend": 28.055333, "fair_value": 20.639688, "relative_strength": -39.827486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.377345, "energy": 85.010005, "activity_lines": [ 19.898667, 21.025273, 23.674524, 25.870301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.5, "volume": 49366204, "typical_volume": 23117495.75, "trend": 27.825, "fair_value": 20.648163, "relative_strength": -33.005087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.970778, "energy": 65.556715, "activity_lines": [ 19.72, 20.466909, 23.040809, 25.318344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.26, "volume": 50536964, "typical_volume": 23357333.45, "trend": 27.533666, "fair_value": 20.653011, "relative_strength": -36.723871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.676953, "energy": 65.623581, "activity_lines": [ 19.194667, 19.853818, 22.359905, 24.701247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.959999, "volume": 133636415, "typical_volume": 27162330.0, "trend": 27.353, "fair_value": 20.687988, "relative_strength": -18.6093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.611376, "energy": 43.031821, "activity_lines": [ 20.399333, 20.263272, 22.202286, 24.406172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.540001, "volume": 89705469, "typical_volume": 29427817.45, "trend": 27.212667, "fair_value": 20.728527, "relative_strength": -19.967265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.957953, "energy": 29.480924, "activity_lines": [ 21.52, 20.818364, 22.156333, 24.160172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }