{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d4c70b2-6a4b-4f45-bd1c-def84ca3defb", "symbol": "UB30", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.52, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.254, "architecture_energy": 18.62, "architecture_maturity": 64.91, "architecture_confidence": 82.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.44, "rotation_up": 16.42, "upward_expansion": 45.69, "deceleration": 87.95, "rotation_down": 42.52, "downward_expansion": 30.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.866668, 167.337728, 167.657453, 164.177576 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 167.440002, "trend_reference": 159.638526, "distance_from_trend": 0.04887, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.652612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.423173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.375049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111784, "excess_performance": 0.060549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04887, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.423173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04375, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19436, "relative_activity": 0.908146, "balance": 0.616847, "dry_up": 1.545801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042202, "annualized_volatility": 0.251694, "from_high_reference": -0.063692, "from_low_reference": 0.360941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.638526, "fair_value_reference": 117.652612, "structural_low": 138.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002138, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010376, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147756, "worst_return": -0.05097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049025, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045717, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.224644, "worst_return": 0.002959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042244, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.163879, "worst_return": 0.016021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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172.177546, 167.072906, 162.60135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 161.274994, "volume": 4292, "typical_volume": 17039.45, "trend": 157.267729, "fair_value": 116.318214, "relative_strength": 4.105985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.371497, "energy": 24.104223, "activity_lines": [ 168.719665, 170.320636, 167.055882, 162.913026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.264999, "volume": 28801, "typical_volume": 17730.8, "trend": 158.122933, "fair_value": 116.736871, "relative_strength": 3.823072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.0146, "energy": 23.142538, "activity_lines": [ 166.115331, 169.020181, 167.214881, 163.299947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 163.130005, "volume": 79803, "typical_volume": 21647.05, "trend": 158.843826, "fair_value": 117.171728, "relative_strength": 2.240217, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.086151, "energy": 21.743578, "activity_lines": [ 164.479, 167.743546, 167.275501, 163.622984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.440002, "volume": 19436, "typical_volume": 21401.85, "trend": 159.638526, "fair_value": 117.652612, "relative_strength": 4.375049, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.253582, "energy": 18.620053, "activity_lines": [ 164.866668, 167.337728, 167.657453, 164.177576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }