{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d578479-bbe8-4872-b189-0bf93d0f9b3b", "symbol": "DNOV", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - NOVEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.27, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.762, "architecture_energy": 80.245, "architecture_maturity": 41.907, "architecture_confidence": 80.136, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 66.49, "upward_expansion": 91.7, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 25.11, "downward_expansion": 16.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.769173, 51.55612, 51.188706, 50.644448 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.1901, "trend_reference": 50.027823, "distance_from_trend": 0.043221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.620932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.887832, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06099, "excess_performance": -0.064635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.558725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43632, "relative_activity": 0.965208, "balance": 1.558725, "dry_up": 0.697382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008398, "annualized_volatility": 0.060485, "from_high_reference": -0.000582, "from_low_reference": 0.146531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.027823, "fair_value_reference": 43.620932, "structural_low": 47.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.009501, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.005989, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.033325, "worst_return": -0.064311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.026734, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.012514, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.059106, "worst_return": -0.002934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034137, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.095569, "worst_return": 0.000173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-4.028502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.860097, "energy": 83.617208, "activity_lines": [ 51.32258, 51.185322, 50.61312, 50.155777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.4477, "volume": 17971, "typical_volume": 51517.0, "trend": 49.75327, "fair_value": 43.330926, "relative_strength": -2.758143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.558983, "energy": 82.596748, "activity_lines": [ 51.393727, 51.253798, 50.75355, 50.270962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.3807, "volume": 29731, "typical_volume": 48764.2, "trend": 49.832407, "fair_value": 43.423142, "relative_strength": -2.241535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.193789, "energy": 79.699754, "activity_lines": [ 51.412767, 51.296953, 50.876241, 50.375957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.7324, "volume": 34766, "typical_volume": 45658.05, "trend": 49.928487, "fair_value": 43.520524, "relative_strength": -2.539503, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.542073, "energy": 80.306197, "activity_lines": [ 51.54032, 51.39204, 51.01909, 50.498537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.1901, "volume": 43632, "typical_volume": 45204.75, "trend": 50.027823, "fair_value": 43.620932, "relative_strength": -4.887832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.762483, "energy": 80.244905, "activity_lines": [ 51.769173, 51.55612, 51.188706, 50.644448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }