{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1d58295e-83d8-4521-b16d-316d9fb4969d",
    "symbol": "VID",
    "name": "Vidrala, S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 68.449,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.434,
    "architecture_energy": 56.224,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.697,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.32,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.37,
        "rotation_up": 65.37,
        "upward_expansion": 80.06,
        "deceleration": 61.08,
        "rotation_down": 13.03,
        "downward_expansion": 9.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        88.01542,
        86.843463,
        83.365974,
        82.037373
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 88.0,
    "trend_reference": 81.785594,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.075984,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 87.684675,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003596,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.638141,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.028284,
    "excess_performance": -0.096147,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075984,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00092,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003596,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117659,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106381,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10585,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028284,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.962585,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 128996,
      "relative_activity": 0.720525,
      "balance": 1.962585,
      "dry_up": 1.141489,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.040913,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.258671,
      "from_high_reference": -0.072193,
      "from_low_reference": 0.25
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 81.785594,
      "fair_value_reference": 87.684675,
      "structural_low": 70.400002,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.012663,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020591,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.042581,
        "worst_return": -0.115442,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.046063,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002438,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.243742,
        "worst_return": -0.128902,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.130826,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005693,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.300978,
        "worst_return": -0.023937,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.007997,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.118549,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.136209,
        "worst_return": -0.090525,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-07-28",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.040322,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2023-12-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05275,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.16433,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045977,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.053362,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.027254,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005197,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.040521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.019481,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045206,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.008084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012663,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 72.951599,
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        "typical_volume": 102239.3,
        "trend": 80.854071,
        "fair_value": 69.219107,
        "relative_strength": -4.73172,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 208325.15,
        "trend": 81.725548,
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        "relative_strength": -11.745302,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 247378,
        "typical_volume": 214134.55,
        "trend": 81.853568,
        "fair_value": 87.441691,
        "relative_strength": -9.372069,
        "stage": 1,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.831691,
        "energy": 74.535529,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 90.800003,
        "volume": 219609,
        "typical_volume": 207972.65,
        "trend": 81.981576,
        "fair_value": 87.529092,
        "relative_strength": -5.614545,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 57.956438,
        "energy": 84.368452,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.03451,
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          81.221971,
          80.991177
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 86.0,
        "volume": 269356,
        "typical_volume": 200679.25,
        "trend": 81.923292,
        "fair_value": 87.557025,
        "relative_strength": -11.44763,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.97493,
        "energy": 74.211536,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.000939,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 88.0,
        "volume": 199484,
        "typical_volume": 195614.1,
        "trend": 81.879091,
        "fair_value": 87.612409,
        "relative_strength": -9.564309,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 37.969898,
        "energy": 67.671921,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.186084,
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          82.64829,
          81.642475
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 88.0,
        "volume": 128996,
        "typical_volume": 179030.45,
        "trend": 81.785594,
        "fair_value": 87.684675,
        "relative_strength": -10.638141,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.433713,
        "energy": 56.223704,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}