{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d5bf969-2db0-49f7-bd02-ec9dd329dcd9", "symbol": "A58", "name": "Elevance Health, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 83.418, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.712, "architecture_energy": 29.577, "architecture_maturity": 67.44, "architecture_confidence": 75.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.9, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 60.89, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.1, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 334.693332, 340.754568, 329.623862, 314.498289 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 339.600006, "trend_reference": 300.396603, "distance_from_trend": 0.130505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 389.604967, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.729148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.220821, "excess_performance": 0.156181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128348, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186684, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9, "relative_activity": 0.245902, "balance": 0.447811, "dry_up": 2.315574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0584, "annualized_volatility": 0.452374, "from_high_reference": -0.195999, "from_low_reference": 0.422438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 300.396603, "fair_value_reference": 389.604967, "structural_low": 238.744949, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04579, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.051161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100238, "worst_return": -0.319767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120833, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.134176, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175172, "worst_return": -0.322944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08743, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.054247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.244381, "worst_return": -0.359325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 329.2, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 42.75, "trend": 299.646863, "fair_value": 390.129381, "relative_strength": -4.789532, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.453138, "energy": 34.981003, "activity_lines": [ 335.993329, 341.451258, 326.586183, 311.920667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 339.600006, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 36.6, "trend": 300.396603, "fair_value": 389.604967, "relative_strength": -3.729148, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.71212, "energy": 29.576539, "activity_lines": [ 334.693332, 340.754568, 329.623862, 314.498289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }