{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d5c3c23-2d0f-4e9b-879a-c14889e2e219", "symbol": "ULV-F", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility Index ETF CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.379, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.866, "architecture_energy": 57.432, "architecture_maturity": 11.556, "architecture_confidence": 63.086, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.08, "rotation_up": 67.36, "upward_expansion": 83.35, "deceleration": 51.32, "rotation_down": 12.47, "downward_expansion": 10.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.256371, 53.021095, 52.384565, 52.205109 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.049999, "trend_reference": 52.037705, "distance_from_trend": 0.019453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.564842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092354, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.380381, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015152, "excess_performance": -0.10527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1902, "relative_activity": 0.640598, "balance": 0.86578, "dry_up": 0.60936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016733, "annualized_volatility": 0.116696, "from_high_reference": -0.020996, "from_low_reference": 0.085935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.037705, "fair_value_reference": 48.564842, "structural_low": 50.285879, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.004029, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.007977, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.03939, "worst_return": -0.062235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013381, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021059, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.07632, "worst_return": -0.093565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038374, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.052781, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.093289, "worst_return": -0.070453, 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52.381432, 51.848594, 51.69757, 51.704347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.837132, "volume": 5184, "typical_volume": 3272.95, "trend": 51.584272, "fair_value": 48.314626, "relative_strength": -7.579249, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.461422, "energy": 69.212962, "activity_lines": [ 52.65159, 52.076308, 51.794612, 51.791374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.526054, "volume": 1693, "typical_volume": 3223.95, "trend": 51.709238, "fair_value": 48.37354, "relative_strength": -5.88179, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.470236, "energy": 79.887602, "activity_lines": [ 53.043461, 52.40928, 51.957822, 51.91665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.915443, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 3112.4, "trend": 51.832651, "fair_value": 48.43744, "relative_strength": -5.090699, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.101069, "energy": 83.597809, "activity_lines": [ 53.452542, 52.766024, 52.160651, 52.058986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.990002, "volume": 742, "typical_volume": 3036.5, "trend": 51.942447, "fair_value": 48.501862, "relative_strength": -5.927244, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.067816, "energy": 69.297553, "activity_lines": [ 53.351363, 52.900039, 52.271616, 52.133654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.049999, "volume": 1902, "typical_volume": 2969.1, "trend": 52.037705, "fair_value": 48.564842, "relative_strength": -8.380381, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.86597, "energy": 57.432148, "activity_lines": [ 53.256371, 53.021095, 52.384565, 52.205109 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }