{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d5e0f0b-0760-4a60-a4b9-4bde67df5ab5", "symbol": "NCNO1", "name": "nCino, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.5, "architecture_energy": 65.125, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.836, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.54, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 45.8, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 277.0, 277.0, 277.942856, 286.914686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 277.0, "trend_reference": 315.732665, "distance_from_trend": -0.122676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 539.536795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.486597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.069377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.399302, "excess_performance": -0.344635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.486597, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.399302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001222, "annualized_volatility": 0.684394, "from_high_reference": -0.560317, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 315.732665, "fair_value_reference": 539.536795, "structural_low": 277.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": -0.000156, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.255924, "worst_return": -0.38976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.10862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036924, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.255924, "worst_return": -0.38976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097593, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.234487, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.049763, "worst_return": -0.399302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.492891, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.414874, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.492891, "worst_return": 0.492891, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.632075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.399302, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.666667, "energy": 67.633333, "activity_lines": [ 277.0, 277.24, 278.634283, 296.787202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 277.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.5, "trend": 328.007999, "fair_value": 541.395769, "relative_strength": -35.398949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.333333, "energy": 67.166667, "activity_lines": [ 277.0, 277.08, 278.382855, 293.100385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 277.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.5, "trend": 321.870332, "fair_value": 540.466282, "relative_strength": -34.996191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.5, "energy": 65.125, "activity_lines": [ 277.0, 277.0, 278.152379, 289.809546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 277.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.5, "trend": 315.732665, "fair_value": 539.536795, "relative_strength": -34.069377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.5, "energy": 65.125, "activity_lines": [ 277.0, 277.0, 277.942856, 286.914686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }