{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d68929d-507e-49fc-be2c-bb696415e13c", "symbol": "BGO", "name": "Bango PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.426, "architecture_energy": 11.114, "architecture_maturity": 22.313, "architecture_confidence": 84.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.9, "rotation_up": 28.23, "upward_expansion": 31.04, "deceleration": 41.5, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 41.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.654667, 0.649727, 0.64331, 0.656624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.625, "trend_reference": 0.688333, "distance_from_trend": -0.09201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.076506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.419418, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.031249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208861, "excess_performance": -0.260096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119591, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.419418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038707, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.513312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3328603, "relative_activity": 5.343254, "balance": 0.513312, "dry_up": 1.837851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132542, "annualized_volatility": 0.427149, "from_high_reference": -0.515504, "from_low_reference": 0.136364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.688333, "fair_value_reference": 1.076506, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010524, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.342857, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008721, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -8.3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.213198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.117359, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.121446, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.554487, "worst_return": -0.380711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.258216, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.363702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169872, "worst_return": -0.435616, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.126829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.875, "volume": 250546, "typical_volume": 755942.0, "trend": 2.080167, "fair_value": 1.936058, "relative_strength": -3.389003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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1.100673, "relative_strength": -23.170791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.270222, "energy": 13.29705, "activity_lines": [ 0.653333, 0.638545, 0.641738, 0.666011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.675, "volume": 736250, "typical_volume": 472971.7, "trend": 0.703333, "fair_value": 1.092917, "relative_strength": -23.507018, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.804157, "energy": 9.41283, "activity_lines": [ 0.663667, 0.647091, 0.643929, 0.663699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.665, "volume": 223252, "typical_volume": 468661.35, "trend": 0.696333, "fair_value": 1.085, "relative_strength": -24.905584, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.325041, "energy": 11.762769, "activity_lines": [ 0.666333, 0.652545, 0.645405, 0.661226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.625, "volume": 3328603, "typical_volume": 622954.25, "trend": 0.688333, "fair_value": 1.076506, "relative_strength": -29.031249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.426317, "energy": 11.114497, "activity_lines": [ 0.654667, 0.649727, 0.64331, 0.656624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }