{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d68c0f9-2973-48c0-b18f-1bfe8219d1f1", "symbol": "XME", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.507, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.944, "architecture_energy": 77.105, "architecture_maturity": 15.537, "architecture_confidence": 81.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.62, "rotation_up": 13.62, "upward_expansion": 22.19, "deceleration": 31.35, "rotation_down": 75.5, "downward_expansion": 90.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 1809.66333, 1865.937533, 1924.430405, 1945.84564 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1799.98999, "trend_reference": 1987.207185, "distance_from_trend": -0.094211, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1346.682425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.222979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154492, "excess_performance": -0.099825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.018671, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6, "relative_activity": 0.009993, "balance": 0.018671, "dry_up": 0.173634, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054395, "annualized_volatility": 0.390296, "from_high_reference": -0.211456, "from_low_reference": 0.27614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1987.207185, "fair_value_reference": 1346.682425, "structural_low": 1719.98999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008367, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002268, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.238158, "worst_return": -0.133147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071158, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.058489, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227492, "worst_return": -0.006544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.285159, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.286512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.723931, "worst_return": 0.048927, "sufficient": false }, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }