{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d69d378-b63e-4a15-9fc6-2dca3876c714", "symbol": "000930", "name": "COFCO Biotechnology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.648, "architecture_energy": 55.069, "architecture_maturity": 87.919, "architecture_confidence": 94.836, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.36, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 43.37, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.630086, 4.591039, 4.914246, 5.33683 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.789748, "distance_from_trend": -0.186493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.910336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.728313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301187, "excess_performance": -0.308587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203091, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75321424, "relative_activity": 0.79442, "balance": 0.51633, "dry_up": 0.960623, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057538, "annualized_volatility": 0.365819, "from_high_reference": -0.421376, "from_low_reference": 0.102431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.789748, "fair_value_reference": 5.910336, "structural_low": 4.272377, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.004249, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.003116, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.310573, "worst_return": -0.137605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.0239, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.005444, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.237687, "worst_return": -0.121345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137778, "worst_return": -0.133081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.825081, "fair_value": 5.928028, "relative_strength": -18.791762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.126112, "energy": 63.677063, "activity_lines": [ 4.568261, 4.584356, 4.984543, 5.408771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 75321424, "typical_volume": 94813083.8, "trend": 5.789748, "fair_value": 5.910336, "relative_strength": -22.728313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.647846, "energy": 55.069362, "activity_lines": [ 4.630086, 4.591039, 4.914246, 5.33683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }