{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d6ce2f1-1fa0-4753-acd9-dd183f594bd4", "symbol": "THQ", "name": "abrdn Healthcare Opportunities Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.447, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.958, "architecture_energy": 53.129, "architecture_maturity": 13.342, "architecture_confidence": 83.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.06, "rotation_up": 57.15, "upward_expansion": 82.76, "deceleration": 50.48, "rotation_down": 19.5, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.842603, 18.715618, 18.457247, 18.246983 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.22, "trend_reference": 18.147464, "distance_from_trend": 0.059101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.391161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.48004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045767, "excess_performance": -0.079858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043985, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.019611, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 714132, "relative_activity": 0.817071, "balance": 2.019611, "dry_up": 1.199356, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032135, "annualized_volatility": 0.179295, "from_high_reference": -0.01049, "from_low_reference": 0.389973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.147464, "fair_value_reference": 16.391161, "structural_low": 15.963679, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000275, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.002791, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.084199, "worst_return": -0.081765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024624, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038711, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083949, "worst_return": -0.117416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012954, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.06921, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.154261, "worst_return": -0.095608, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.221048, "energy": 40.467272, "activity_lines": [ 18.625892, 18.469031, 18.137599, 18.078039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.560479, "volume": 1684772, "typical_volume": 843845.7, "trend": 18.109968, "fair_value": 16.302839, "relative_strength": -1.698754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.953799, "energy": 38.130075, "activity_lines": [ 18.632064, 18.50908, 18.200772, 18.108662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.55, "volume": 941089, "typical_volume": 855288.45, "trend": 18.121796, "fair_value": 16.329508, "relative_strength": -1.208707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.32085, "energy": 47.63773, "activity_lines": [ 18.627636, 18.538303, 18.263699, 18.137051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.74, "volume": 853026, "typical_volume": 871440.25, "trend": 18.134251, "fair_value": 16.359437, "relative_strength": -1.368514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.219651, "energy": 45.368348, "activity_lines": [ 18.666386, 18.587096, 18.341133, 18.176935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.22, "volume": 714132, "typical_volume": 874014.35, "trend": 18.147464, "fair_value": 16.391161, "relative_strength": -2.48004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.957976, "energy": 53.128852, "activity_lines": [ 18.842603, 18.715618, 18.457247, 18.246983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }